News/Analysis/Decoding the spectrum

Welcome to The Spectrum of Misinformation newsletter bringing you the latest misinformation news, in-depth analysis, and practical advice for communicators.

In News digest catch-up on US election fallout, an Aussie legal row, new research, why we fall for AI fakes, and X's chief super-spreader. There's an analysis of what a Trump victory means for misinformation in US: get ready for the surge. You'll find advice on targeting your audience in Decoding the Spectrum and a jargon buster in Learning the language. Finally, discover what inspired this newsletter/blog in Adventures in misinformation.

News digest

Trump's US election victory is likely to trigger a new wave of misinformation with concerns highlighted in BBC News online, The Guardian and STAT (among others) about the views of Trump nominees such as Robert F Kennedy Jr (see below: US: get ready for the surge).

ABC News reports Australia's proposed laws on mis/disinformation have been criticised of "overreach" by legal experts. They claim a reliance on non-expert government fact-checkers could end up suppressing the truth, once again raising the thorny question of who decides what is and isn't misinformation.

Science has a deep dive on misinformation research that's well worth a read if you're still getting to grips with concepts such as 'inoculation' and 'prebunking' (see Learning the language below), it features leading researchers such as Sander van der Linden and Gordon Pennycook. Importantly, it doesn't gloss over the huge practical and structural challenges of combating misinformation.

FT covers a discussion on AI and misinformation at their recent Future of AI Summit highlighting why people might be happy to accept fake content with Elizabeth Dubois commenting: "the reality is people like to be entertained. People like to feel community. People like to have their ideas supported and reinforced."

The Independent says, when prompted, X's own resident AI Grok responds that Musk is one of the most significant spreaders of misinformation on the platform.

US: get ready for the surge

Find out what Trump's first picks for key government roles tell us about his administration's likely attitudes to misinformation.

Is it all about RFK Jr? Is the President Elect's weakness for untruthers only an issue for the US? Or should the rest of the world be worried? [Hint: YES]. Read an in-depth analysis of the biggest story in fake news.

Decoding the spectrum

This newsletter's title comes from an idea I had while putting together a talk for fellow communications professionals.

I'd been reading about how those affected by misinformation were a diverse group and that people's beliefs on an issue were not fixed in a binary "I believe/I don't believe" position and could change over time and with experience.

That made me think about how I could apply the communications approach of segmenting your audience/choosing a target audience for potential interventions. What I came up with was 'The Spectrum of Misinformation': The idea that you could think about people as being somewhere on the spectrum below:

Generators are those who create fake news for fun or profit, Believers share misinformation either out of genuine belief or because it fits their agenda, Neutrals are "don't knows" who may be persuaded to share misinformation on an issue, Sceptics check claims against the facts and may be encouraged to challenge, while Rejectors don't understand why people believe.

The point is to make you think about who exactly you are trying to persuade and what a realistic and achievable outcome from an intervention is.

Generators of misinformation (misinformers) are a small but highly-motivated group driven by political dogma, money, or influence (or any combination of these). It's probably unrealistic to suggest they can be persuaded to stop. At best you might be able to contain their false claims, rather like quarantining an infectious individual. Stronger moderation.and regulation may be the only way to cut off fake news at its source.

A more realistic goal might be to target believers, especially if their belief arises from genuine concerns, and convince them not to share. What specific concerns do they have? Could you address these by providing credible alternative explanations and counter-arguments framed in a neutral way? For instance: 'find out the facts about vaccines' or 'discover the science of climate change'?

Neutrals (our "don't knows") are the largest group on most issues and are vulnerable to misinformation attacks that could persuade them to share false or misleading claims. As well as targeting them with facts and counter-arguments, stressing the scientific consensus on an issue could help to move them along the spectrum towards our Sceptics (this could be you!) who are, yes, sceptical of claims and likely to fact-check and challenge.

Rejectors are a group I'd never thought of before I had to imagine the polar opposite to a Generator. But once I did I realised that Rejectors are a major problem because they don't really see what the problem is, not understanding why anyone would believe in fake news and reluctant to engage with it in case it damages their reputation.

In my experience, in the scientific world at least, there are a lot of Rejectors who either dismiss people who believe fake news as stupid or think 'fact bombing' everyone with more and more evidence (often without ever thinking if it is accessible and addresses people's genuine concerns or is delivered by someone they will trust) can fix things. Convincing Rejectors to engage is a key challenge, especially if they are in positions of power.

To my surprise, this idea that started life as a rather jokey visual aid, resonated with my fellow communicators. They found it was a helpful starting point for thinking about who a particular intervention was aimed at and what it should, ideally, consist of.

I'll be writing more about The Spectrum of Misinformation in future editions of The Spectrum of Misinformation...

Learning the language

Never heard of prebunking or a truth sandwich? If you're new to the world of misinformation then you might find this explainer article helpful as I unpack some of the key technical terms and have a stab at writing digestible definitions of complex concepts.

Adventures in misinformation

Forgot the COVID-19 hospital invasions? Missed the pandemic treaty panic? Find out what inspired my misinformation journey and this newsletter/blog in my very first article.